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Report No: AUS0002708 . World Climate Services Operational Pathways Pathways for Transforming Weather, Water, and Climate Services in Mozambique . January 28, 2022 . CLC . Document of the World Bank . . © 2017 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2022. Pathways for Transforming Weather, Water, and Climate Services in Mozambique. © World Bank.? All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. 1 Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND DISCLAIMER ………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6 1. CONTEXT ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 1.1 CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY IN MOZAMBIQUE………………………………………………………………………… 9 1.2 BUILDING RESILIENCE WITH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES ………………………………………….. 9 2. STUDY: PATHWAYS FOR TRANSFORMING WEATHER, WATER, AND CLIMATE SERVICES………………….. 11 3. BACKGROUND ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13 3.1 INSTITUTIONAL LANDSCAPE ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 13 3.2 EXISTING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES ………………………………………………………………. 15 4. STUDY APPROACH ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 16 4.1 DATA COLLECTION ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 16 4.2 DATA ANALYSIS ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 17 5. RESULTS & DISCUSSION ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 18 5.1 HARMONIZING AND INTEGRATING DATA RESOURCES ……………………………………………………………………….. 18 5.2 IMPROVING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DESIGN AND DELIVERY ………………………………………………….. 21 5.3 FOSTERING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE SERVICES IMPACT THROUGH USER FEEDBACK ………………….. 26 5.4 BUILDING APPROPRIATE HUMAN CAPACITY …………………………………………………………………………………… 29 5.5 STRENGTHENING NATIONAL COORDINATION …………………………………………………………………………………. 30 5.6 PROMOTING REGIONAL COORDINATION ………………………………………………. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 6. CONCLUSIONS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 33 BIBLIOGRAPHY ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 37 APPENDICES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 37 APPENDIX 1 – LIST OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OFFERED BY INAM (ADAPTED FROM “REPORT OF THE CURRENT SITUATION OF INAM FOR ELABORATION OF THE BUSINESS PLAN (INAM AND LEADERSHIP BUSINESS CONSULTING 2017?) …….. 37 APPENDIX 2 – LIST OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OFFERED BY DNGRH AND ARAS ………………………………………….. 40 APPENDIX 3 – INTERVIEW PROTOCOL ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 41 APPENDIX 4 – DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF FG PARTICIPANTS ………………………………………………………… 42 2 Acknowledgements This study was written by Angela Soriano – Quevedo, Sujata Manandhar, and Catherine Vaughan under the leadership of Kazi Fateha Ahmed and Yevgen Yesyrkenov. The authors would like to thank the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Administrative Unit for its support throughout the preparation of this work. Additional special thanks to Joseph Dickman, Xianfu Lu, Loreta Rufo, and Hanna Schweitzer for their contributions and advice. The authors are grateful to Daniel Kull, Makoto Suwa, and Odete Duarte Muximpua from the World Bank for reviewing early drafts of this study. The authors are also thankful to the staff and officials from national and international institutions who availed their time for interviews and contributed to this study with their inputs and views. In particular, the authors would like to thank the following institutions: CONSULTEC, Eduardo Mondlane University, Food and Agriculture Organization, Maputo Municipality, Mozambique Civil Aviation Institute, Mozambique Directorate of National Environment, Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ministry of Land and Environment, Ministry of Sea, Inland Waters, and Fisheries, National Council for Sustainable Development, National Directorate of Water Resources Management, National Center for Emergency Operations, National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction, National Institute for Irrigation, National Institute for Meteorology, Mozambique Red Cross Society, Southern Regional Water Authority, SALOMON, Water and Sanitation Infrastructures Administration, and UK Met Office. Disclaimer This publication was commissioned by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), however, the views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the CIF or the World Bank. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the CIF and the World Bank do not take responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its contents and shall not be liable for loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. 3 Abbreviations and Acronyms ADRA Adventist Development and Relief Agency ARA Regional Water Authority ARA-Sul Southern Regional Water Authority AWOS Automated Weather Observing Systems AWS Automatic Weather Station BCA Benefit-Cost Analysis CENOE National Center for Emergency Operations CERUM Multiple Uses and Resources Centers CIF Climate Investment Funds DNA National Directorate of Water DNAAS National Directorate for Water Supply and Sanitation DNGRH National Directorate of Water Resources Management DRM Disaster Risk Management EWS Early Warning System FG Focus Group GIS Geographical Information System GoM Government of Mozambique GTS Global Telecommunication System ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology IIAM Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research INAM National Institute for Meteorology INGD National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency MADER Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MoU Memorandum of Understanding NCBA/CLUSA National Cooperative Business Association/Credit League of the United States of America NCCAMS National Strategy for Climate Change NGO Non-Governmental Organization NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NIWRMIS National Integrated Water Resources Management Information System NWP Numerical Weather Prediction Model PICSA Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience QMS Quality Management System SADC Southern African Development Community 4 SARCOF Southern African Regional Outlook Forum UEM University of Eduardo Mondlane WIGOS WMO Integrated Global Observing System WMO World Meteorological Organization WRF Weather Research and Forecasting Model 5 Executive Summary The Climate Investment Funds (CIF) were established with the mandate to serve as a learning laboratory for scaled-up climate finance through a range of investments to address climate change and accelerate climate action. The CIF Evaluation and Learning (E&L) Initiative is helping to fulfill this mandate by various strategic and demand-driven studies covering some of the most important and pressing challenges facing climate finance funders and practitioners, including ensuring sustainability and enhancing project design and implementation to better respond the needs and capacities of beneficiaries. Drawing on experience from across the CIF portfolio of investments in clean energy, forests and climate resilience in 72 developing countries, the E&L Initiative identifies strategic lessons and enables learning that is relevant, timely and used to inform climate programs, strategies, and investments, for both the CIF and the wider climate finance sector. The study Pathways for Transforming Weather, Water, and Climate Services was commissioned by CIF’s E&L Initiative to distill lessons from CIF’s Pilot Program on Climate Resilience (PPCR) support in identifying, designing, and implementing hydrometeorological and climate services investments. It seeks to generate learning and strategic insight into the different operational pathways that can be taken by national hydrological and meteorological services to develop, deliver, and strengthen hydrometeorological and climate services. The outputs from the study comprise of one synthesis report and three country studies for Jamaica, Mozambique, and Nepal. These three countries have been selected for the study due to their different institutional frameworks, hydrometeorological systems, and socio-economic context. They provide diverse in-depth insights in hydrometeorological and climate service development, delivery and use. In this respect, the PPCR-supported Climate Resilience: Transforming Hydrometeorological Services Project was selected as a case study project for Mozambique. It elucidates lessons learned on the process for modernizing hydrometeorological systems and delivering climate services to users. Furthermore, it offers insight into challenges and opportunities for climate services development, delivery, and use in Southern African developing countries. Qualitative methods, including structured interviews and literature review, were used to identify promising pathways to continue to transform weather, water and climate services in the three case study countries. In Mozambique, the analysis of the data collected revealed six themes regarding critical pathways to transform weather, water, and climate services in the country. These are: harmonizing and integrating data resources; improving hydrometeorological and climate service design and delivery; fostering hydrometeorological and climate services impact through user feedback; building appropriate human capacity; strengthening national coordination; and promoting regional collaboration. The section below summarizes key findings. 6 Key findings on pathways to continue to transform weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique: Harmonizing and Integrating data resources • Strengthening formal data sharing mechanisms can increase collaboration among institutions responsible for the development and delivery of hydrometeorological and climate services. These mechanisms provide a framework to access data in a standardized or agreed format. Thus, enhancing data accessibility, improving forecasting processes, and boosting the development of targeted hydrometeorological and climate information products and services. Hydrometeorological and Climate Service Design and Delivery • Bolstering the collaboration between service providers and field-based NGOs, local radios, and agricultural extension workers can help maximize the delivery and improve the understandability of weather forecasts and climate information among end-users. These collaborations can expand forecast outreach through the translation of weather and climate information into local languages, interpretation of information, and contextualization of weather and climate information. Fostering hydrometeorological and climate services impact through user feedback • Establishing structured processes to gather feedback on hydrometeorological and climate information products delivered to users can help service providers better understand users information needs and the relevance of the products produced. It provides an opportunity to assess areas for improvement in the design and delivery of hydrometeorological products and services. Building Appropriate Human Capacity • Enhancing human capacities is critical for the development of innovative and quality hydrometeorological and climate information products. Capacity building activities need to be continuously supported. Future investments in climate services should continue to strengthen capacities to develop products and promote research to inform country-specific solutions. Strengthening National Coordination • Promoting and expanding collaborations with the academic sector can contribute to research and development of innovative hydrometeorological and climate services in Mozambique. Further, these collaborations can help improve the capacity of the hydrometeorological institutions to model, process and analyze data. Promoting Regional Collaboration 7 • Strengthening bilateral and regional cooperation is key to enhance the capacities of hydrometeorological and climate service providers. It can help them improve the development of hydrometeorological products through access to data and climate simulation models, enhance human capacity through learning exchanges, and promote research and development. 8 1. CONTEXT 1.1 Climate risk and vulnerability in Mozambique Mozambique experiences high levels of climate-related risk. Large areas of the country are exposed to droughts, cyclones, and river flooding, and more than 65% of the population lives in low-lying coastal areas, where intense storms and sea-level rise threaten infrastructure, agriculture, and fisheries (USAID, 2018). At the same time, Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world. Two-thirds of the population has limited access to electricity, safe drinking water, and sanitation. Nearly half of Mozambicans live below the poverty line, and 70% depend on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood (CIA World Factbook, 2020). Globally, Mozambique ranks 19th out of 191 countries with respect to the risk of humanitarian crisis and disasters (Inter-Agency Standing Committee and European Comission, 2020). In this context, current climate variability exacerbates Mozambique’s development challenges. In 2015- 2016, for instance, El Niño conditions contributed to the worst drought in 35 years, reducing food availability in the country by 15% (USAID, 2017). Food insecurity increased in 2017, when Cyclone Dineo damaged crops and destroyed infrastructure – conditions that worsened when drought conditions returned in 2018 (FAO, 2019). In 2019, back-to-back storms – Cyclone Idai, which hit Mozambique’s central region in March of 2019, and Cyclone Kenneth, which hit the northern province of Cabo-Delgado six weeks later – seriously affected about 2 million people (UN OCHA, 2020). In recent years, the country has also experienced extreme heat, with heat waves above 46oC compromising agriculture and human health (World Bank, 2020). While current climate variability poses serious challenges in Mozambique, long-term climate is also a matter of concern. According to analyses under climate scenarios, significant changes in climate patterns and hydrological regimes for the country are projected to further exacerbate water and weather risks (IPCC, 2014). In 2012, the World Bank estimated that without rapid adaptation, especially along the coasts, the country stood to face a staggering US$450 million in climate-change-related damages per year (World Bank, 2013), a devastating impact on an already fragile economy (Quinn et al., 2018). 1.2 Building resilience with hydrometeorological and climate services Recognizing the threats posed by climate variability and change, the Government of Mozambique (GoM), supported by a range of development and climate finance partners, has taken a number of actions to bolster climate resilience and reduce hydrometeorological risks within the country. This is reflected in national strategies and policies that include: the 2007 National Water Resources Management Strategy (Council of Ministers, 2007), the 2012 National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (MICOA, 2012), followed shortly by the 2013-2018 Strategic Plan for Meteorological Services (INAM, 2012), which outlined a strategy to improve the quality and distribution of weather and climate information. 9 These sectoral instruments, that placed hydrometeorological and climate services as key building blocks to enhance resilience to climate and hydrometeorological risks, were supported by the Climate Investment Funds’ (CIF) Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), which in 2013 provided a US$ 15 million grant to implement a five-year project in Mozambique entitled Climate Resilience: Transforming Hydrometeorological Services. The project sought to vastly improve the observation, production and use of hydrometeorological services in Mozambique to support economic development. The PPCR Project was structured with respect to three strategic objectives: • Strengthening hydrological information management, including strengthening and optimizing physical hydrological monitoring networks; improving quality control and standards enforcement for hydrological data; improving data management through information and communications technology (ICT); and enhancing hydrological modelling, forecasting and flood/early warning systems (EWS); and developing and improving access to hydrological information products. • Strengthening weather and climate information management, including strengthening and optimizing physical meteorological monitoring networks; upgrading the Quality Management System (QMS); improving quality control and standard enforcement for meteorological data; improving data management systems through ICT; strengthening meteorological modelling for forecasting, predicting weather and EWS; and developing and improving access to meteorological information products. • Piloting resilience through the delivery of improved weather and water information, including the creation of pilot interventions to enable end-to-end delivery of hydrometeorological information. The pilot interventions included delivery of early warnings and weather forecasts in the Zambezi, Limpopo, and Incomati River basins; dissemination of hydrometeorological information to farmers in pilot locations in the Gaza and Inhambane provinces; and provision of weather information for ports, commercial maritime and artisanal fishery communities in coastal areas in Inhambane. In particular, the PPCR project highlighted the potential for improved hydrometeorological information to enhance productivity and inform decisions related to agriculture, fisheries, hydropower, and transport as articulated in Table 1 below. Table 1: Potential of hydrometeorological services to support economic sectors in Mozambique (adapted from World Bank 2013). Subsistence rain-fed farming provides livelihood, income and food for almost 80 percent of the population. Farmers require information on water and weather Agriculture conditions to support decisions on when to plant, irrigate, or harvest to secure productivity or reduce losses from hydrometeorological hazards. The fishing sector depends on timely meteorological information to avoid performing Fisheries activities during dangerous storms, and the resulting loss of life and physical 10 resources. In Mozambique, it provides over 95,000 jobs and accounts for 4 percent of GDP and 28 percent of foreign exchange earnings. The development of the country’s hydropower potential, as well as the design, Hydropower construction and efficient operation of dams relies on an accurate record of hydrometeorological data. The efficiency and security of the aviation industry was impeded by the absence of Transport upper-air, lighting-detection, now-casting and higher spatial and temporal resolution of weather information. The direct project beneficiaries were government institutions mandated to collect, manage, and disseminate hydrometeorological and climate information products and services. For meteorology, this included the National Institute for Meteorology (INAM). For hydrology, this comprised the National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH) and its three Regional Water Authorities (ARAs): ARA-Sul, ARA-Centro, and ARA-Norte. Furthermore, the direct project beneficiaries included farmers and fishermen targeted by the pilot interventions in Gaza and Inhambane Provinces, who are vulnerable and at risk from weather- and water- related events and whose productivity could increase from higher quality hydrometeorological information. 2. STUDY: PATHWAYS FOR TRANSFORMING WEATHER, WATER, AND CLIMATE SERVICES The study Pathways for Transforming Weather, Water, and Climate Services was commissioned by CIF’s E&L Initiative to distill lessons from CIF’s Pilot Program on Climate Resilience (PPCR) support in identifying, designing, and implementing hydrometeorological and climate services investments. It seeks to generate learning and strategic insight into the different operational pathways that can be taken by national hydrological and meteorological services to develop, deliver, and strengthen hydrometeorological and climate services. Furthermore, the study aims to understand the aspects that allow or limit the development, delivery, and use of hydrometeorological and climate services by gathering lessons learned on: the mechanisms that can improve coordination between hydrometeorological and climate service providers and sector institutions to improve the development, delivery, and use of hydrometeorological and climate information; the elements within the climate services value chain that promote or obstruct the delivery and use of hydrometeorological and climate services; and, the extent to which intermediary users and end-users utilize and are aware of hydrometeorological and climate services. 11 The outputs from the study comprise of one synthesis report and three country studies for Jamaica, Mozambique, and Nepal. These three countries have been selected for the study due to their different institutional frameworks, hydrometeorological systems, and socio-economic context. They provide diverse in-depth insights in hydrometeorological and climate services development, delivery and use. In this respect, the PPCR-supported Climate Resilience: Transforming Hydrometeorological Services Project was selected as a case study project for Mozambique to elucidate lessons learned on the process for modernizing hydrometeorological systems and delivering climate information services to users. Furthermore, it offers insight into challenges and opportunities for climate services development, delivery and use in Southern African developing countries. The themes explored for generating knowledge and distilling lessons in the three country studies were based on the components of the hydrometeorological and climate services value chain conceptual and analytical framework outlined in Figure 1. It was used to ensure consistency of the learning approach across country studies, and with the intention of producing learning outcomes relevant to the broader hydrometeorological and climate services community. The hydrometeorological and climate services value chain framework consists of the following components: hydrometeorological data collection and management, development and delivery of hydrometeorological and climate information, products and services, and its application to support climate resilient development outcomes. Figure 1: Hydrometeorological and Climate Services Value Chain (Source: World Bank 2021). 12 The hydrometeorological and climate services value chain begins with the production of services which is composed of hydrological and meteorological observations, and data processing and management (Figure 1). Data processing generally encompasses the use of models and other tools to visualize and produce real-time hydrometeorological forecasts and climate information. Subsequently, this information is delivered as hydrometeorological and climate services to decision-makers who then take actions that translate into prevented human and economic loss, as well as increased productivity of key economic sectors. A better understanding of weather, water, and climate from more reliable hydrometeorological and climate information can inform long-term planning and investments to mitigate or adapt to climate risks, and help understand the potential impacts of long-term climate. This hydrometeorological and climate services value chain is operationalized by hydrological and meteorological service providers who are responsible for data collection, management, and processing. They rely on intermediary users to transform and translate the data collected into sector-specific information to produce hydrometeorological and climate information products and services. The intermediary users are different from the final end-users of climate information who frequently do not need hydrometeorological and climate information or data, but a finished useable advisory service or product they can use for their decision-making. The end-users can comprise farmers, fishermen, among other groups, as well as national decision-makers and planners who may need finished hydrometeorological and climate information products (Tall A., 2013). 3. BACKGROUND 3.1 Institutional landscape As mentioned in section 1.2, the institutions mandated to generate and disseminate meteorological and hydrological information in Mozambique involve the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) and the National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH), respectively. At DNGRH, hydrological data collection and management is supported by three decentralized entities, the Regional Water Authorities (ARAs). There are other government agencies who manage hydrometeorological monitoring stations which feed into the national aggregate network for observation, which include the National Institute of Agricultural Research (IIAM). In addition, institutions from the private sector have established their own hydrological and meteorological stations to collect their own data. 13 In the case of disaster risk management, the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD)1 is responsible for issuing response measures associated with the warnings issued by INAM and DNGRH. A detailed map of institutional relationships is found in Figure 2. Figure 2: Institutional landscape of hydrometeorological services in Mozambique (Source: Authors). Previous to the PPCR project implementation, the role of these agencies responsible for the development and delivery of hydrometeorological services was recognized in the Government’s strategies, laws, and policies. However, their services were undermined by the following challenges: • Limited financial resources: The government’s budget allocations, donor support, and revenues were not commensurate with the service’s estimated economic value. Further, the budget fluctuated significantly and did not allow to replace malfunctioning equipment or expand the hydrometeorological network. 1The National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) is no longer operational. Currently, the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD) is responsible for disaster risk management in the country. 14 • Fragmented institutional mandates: This fragmentation, in addition to weak interagency collaboration, resulted in poor implementation of quality standards and calibration of monitoring stations. In addition, it limited data sharing to support forecasting and early warning. • Insufficient technical capacity: This limited the capability to operate and maintain monitoring, modelling, and forecasting functions, as well as to leverage modern resources and technologies necessary for the generation of reliable hydrometeorological and climate services. As a consequence of these drawbacks, the monitoring networks were inconsistent, disconnected and weak. At the time of project implementation, only a small portion of the hydrology and meteorology monitoring stations network was operational. The country’s two Doppler radars, which detected heavy precipitation and hydrometeorological phenomena, were not operating. In the ARA’s hydrological network, only 36% of stations monitoring river stage and 25% of stations monitoring rainfall were providing data. The latter excludes the ARA’s automatic stations, where only 3 out of 8 were operating. 3.2 Existing hydrometeorological and climate services Hydrometeorological and climate services are provided separately by INAM, DNGRH and ARAs, as described below. • National Institute of Meteorology: The National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) is the producer of weather and climate information and provides weather forecasts for the public. Moreover, it tailors these forecasts for maritime and aeronautical clients. INAM provides seasonal outlooks for the rainy season, which occurs October-March, divided into two periods (October-December and January- March). Seasonal information also underpins the National Climate Outlook Forum process, which includes strategic partners from a variety of sectors (agriculture, water, health and disaster management) and the general public. In addition to the meteorological products mentioned above, INAM provides special services including: providing data for studies related to climate change, environmental impact, hydrological systems, industrial facilities, and construction of transport infrastructure. For public offices, INAM makes specific forecasts. For instance, related to maximum and minimum air temperature for provincial capitals, as well as precipitation and wind direction and intensity at the national level. A list of specific services provided by INAM is found in Appendix 1. • National Directorate of Water Resources Management: The National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH) has the mandate to undertake hydrology monitoring at the national level of all river basins. It issues the National Hydrological Bulletin which provides information on flow and precipitation nationally, as well as it issues the National Surface Water Quality Bulletin every three months. In addition, it publishes monthly the National Drought and Dam Bulletins which analyze the hydrological behavior of river basins and reservoirs in the country. 15 DNGRH is also responsible for water resources information management, hydrographic basin studies, and cooperation on transboundary basins in the framework of the South African Development Community (SADC). The strategic activities undertaken by DNGRH are operationalized by the Regional Water Authorities (ARAs). Further, it provides guidance and technical support to ARAs (see Appendix 2). • Regional Water Authorities: The Regional Water Authorities (ARAs) comprise ARA-Sul, ARA-Centro, and ARA-Norte. They are responsible for carrying out operational management of water resources at a regional scale. Thus, the ARAs have established hydrological stations in river basins within their jurisdiction to collect and process hydrometeorological data for the development of different products and services including the Flood Advisory System. The ARAs are responsible for developing a Daily Regional Hydrological Bulletin during the rainy season. Moreover, they produce regional drought and water quality reports. Prior to the PPCR project implementation, the hydrometeorological products and services produced by INAM, DNGRH, and ARAs failed to meet the needs of end users (World Bank 2013). In certain cases, the lead-time of forecasts was not long enough to allow time for appropriate decision-making and action. The spatial resolution of forecasts was too low for location-specific application and the content, format, language, and delivery of the forecasts was not tailored for end users. The diverse number of interventions under the PPCR project supported the development and delivery of reliable and timely climate information to enhance climate resilience and support the economic development of local communities. 4. STUDY APPROACH Qualitative methods were used to identify promising pathways to continue to transform weather, water and climate services in Mozambique. This involved collecting and analyzing empirical evidence through focus group discussions with local communities and key informant interviews with relevant stakeholders of hydrometeorological and climate services in Mozambique. In addition, it included the analysis of key documents that consisted of project progress reports, project restructuring papers, the project completion report, implementation status and results reports, as well as literature review on hydrometeorological and climate services. 4.1 Data collection Focus groups (FGs) and key informant interviews (KIIs) were carried out in Mozambique in November 2018 during the final year of project implementation. They were recorded and transcribed. The transcriptions were analyzed through a thematic content analysis approach to identify recurrent themes and issues. An 16 interview protocol is included in Appendix 3. Further detail on the focus groups and key informant interviews is provided below. • Key Informant Interviews: A list of key informants was developed in conjunction with the World Bank PPCR team, and a snowball approach was used to add additional stakeholders when appropriate. In total, 28 key informants from 17 organizations drawn from a broad spectrum of actors in the hydrometeorological space in Mozambique were interviewed. These largely included but were not limited to actors involved in the implementation of the PPCR investment program in Mozambique. Interviews were in-depth with the goal of revealing stakeholders’ perception of the hydrometeorological and climate services development and delivery process, and lasted roughly an hour. Separate set of questions were developed for different stakeholder groups: (i) climate service providers; (ii) climate service intermediary users; (iii) climate service end-users; and (iv) ‘other’ direct or indirect climate service users (academic, private sector, civil society representatives). While interview questions were common to all stakeholder groups to permit comparative analyses, other sections were tailored to the specific stakeholder group’s role in the climate services value chain. • Focus Group Discussions: Six FGs were carried out with a total of 72 actors who were expected to use weather, water or climate services in their professional activities. The groups (ranging in size from 7- 15 people) were structured to represent different livelihood groups and a range of local contexts, including community radio workers and district leaders and technical staff. Moreover, two focus groups included farmers and fishers from two different locations in Mozambique: Guija (Gaza District) and Inharrime (Inhambane Province), both located in the south of the country. Two focus groups representing farmers and fishers – one for men and a separate one for women – were held in Guija, where it was believed mixed-gender groups might speak less freely than single gendered groups. In Inharrime, separate groups were structured to reflect farmers’ and fishers’ individual experience. Demographic characteristics of those participating in the FGs is found in Appendix 4. FGs were focused on climate services value chain questions (e.g. awareness, access, accuracy, usage of climate information), behavioral and impact questions (e.g. behavioral changes, livelihood improvements due to the delivery of weather forecasts, suggested improvements to enhance weather and climate services) and project-specific questions (e.g. activities implemented, community engagement, capacity building). 4.2 Data analysis As indicated in section 2, the hydrometeorological and climate services value chain and its four different components were used as a guiding conceptual and analytical framework to analyze the data collected, as well as to identify opportunities and bottlenecks to continue transforming weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique. 17 The data collected both through interviews and FGs was organized into categories that are presented in the Results & Discussion section below. 5. RESULTS & DISCUSSION Interviews and focus groups revealed six themes regarding critical pathways to transform weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique. These are: harmonizing and integrating data resources; improving hydrometeorological and climate service design and delivery; fostering hydrometeorological and climate services impact through user feedback; building appropriate human capacity; strengthening national coordination; and promoting regional collaboration. These six themes are presented and analyzed below. 5.1 Harmonizing and integrating data resources A number of the interviewees discussed challenges related to data resources. Data provides the basis for reliable scientific understanding and knowledge, as well as informed decisions (Hansen et al. 2019). Timely access to high-quality observations can be invaluable in the lead-up to, during and after high-impact weather events – informing global and regional models, providing forecasters with an improved understanding of conditions on the ground, post event analysis and forecast, and warning verification (WMO 2019). They form the basis of all weather, water and climate services. Unfortunately, several challenges impede efficient and effective integration of climate and hydrometeorological data and information with other data, products or applications. These challenges make it difficult to answer the different needs and requirements of various climate data users and the value chain of climate data is not yet fully realized (Giuliani et al. 2017). As respondents explained, observation data are collected by INAM, DNGRH, and ARAs, following a separate set of standards and procedures. For instance, INAM maintains a surface observation network that comprises a mix of manual synoptic stations reporting at different time intervals depending on staffing; automatic weather stations (AWS) generating hourly synoptic data; automated weather observing systems (AWOS) supporting INAM’s aviation forecasters at eight airports; and manual climate stations providing manual daily climate observations. DNGRH along with ARAs maintain their own observation networks. Moreover, there are other networks, particularly for agroclimatic data, that are managed by both public entities such as the Mozambique Institute for Agricultural Research (IIAM) and private farms. The PPCR project has supported improvements in the data collection, quality and integration of data resources in Mozambique (World Bank 2020). Efforts supported by the PPCR project to improve hydrological data resources through DNGRH and ARAs included: 18 • The project completed physical works and instrumentation for a total of 58 river gauge stations, both rehabilitated and newly installed. These investments reactivated and increased the observation density of the country, bringing it closer to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommended standards. • Upon project finalization, 80 stations (hydrometric and rainfall) including automatic and manual stations were reporting continuously. These are critical as this are the minimum number of stations necessary for the functioning of the flood early warning system. • In addition, the project supported the development of a National Integrated Water Resources Management Information System (NIWRMIS), which is now operational, enabling more effective integration, processing and management of multiple streams of water resources data in a single- sharing information platform. • At project closing, the NIWRMIS database hosted information from 717 water stations; 17 reservoirs; 1,389 rainfall stations; 7,686 boreholes; 3,598 DNAAS sites; 428 water use licenses; and 6,598 recovered and digitalized (historical) records. The system further connects with a GIS platform and to other web interfaces. • The project financed the preparation of a Manual on Methodologies and Procedures for exchanging data/information and installing hydrometeorological equipment. This manual is used to ensure compliance with WMO standards in the installation and operation of hydrometeorological stations. Similarly, efforts supported by the PPCR project to improve meteorological observation and monitoring included the following measures: • The project financed the physical works, acquisition, and installation for a total of 27 AWS throughout the country and one maritime AWS for Inhambane Port. • An additional 13 climatological (synoptic) stations were modernized for real-time transmission. • At project closing, 87 synoptic weather stations were reporting in total (exceeding the 60 units target) and 71 real-time weather monitoring stations were reporting (surpassing the 25 units target). In addition, three AWOS were installed and operational at the airports of Beira, Nampula and Lichinga. • INAM’s data management system was replaced and upgraded with Climsoft, which is operational and enabling more effective integration of multiple data streams for forecasting and reporting with WMO’s Global Observation and Telecommunication System (GTS). 19 There are, however, existing challenges related to sharing and compatibility of data, which are described below: • Data quality: INAM has implemented procedures on hydrometeorological and climatological data standards, which have helped improve data quality. While the general perception is that INAM’s data is of sufficient quality because it complies with WMO’s global norms and standards, there is also a sense, including at ARAs, that the quality of DNGRH’s data is not sufficient since the recording stations do not comply with WMO requirements. The country still relies on manual hydrometeorological stations, which require technicians to manually collect data. Interviewees reported that in certain cases the data collected by the technicians are not of sufficient quality as it may not reflect the real conditions. The implementation of quality control system and further upgrading of manual to automated stations is key to address this issue. • Data sharing: Under the PPCR Project, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed between INAM and the DNGRH that set up a working group and established a series of instruments to ensure the collaboration between these two institutions. This has contributed to sustaining and supporting better service production and delivery. While the instruments established under the MOU included procedures for equipment and data standards, as well as protocols for data sharing, these instruments including the data sharing protocol have not yet been operationalized. Additionally, there is a sense that it is crucial to enhance data sharing mechanisms with other national institutions who could benefit from hydrometeorological data. This aspect is critical and needs emphasis to ensure the usefulness and uptake of hydrometeorological and climate data. Thus, the socio-economic value of hydrometeorological and climate products can be maximized. For example, tidal data (managed by the National Institute of Hydrography and Navigation (INAHINA)) are increasingly necessary for coastal cities where certain rivers flow with the effect of the tides. There is also an increasing tendency towards saline intrusion and frequent floods caused by seawater. Moreover, availability and sharing of historical datasets are critical for improving adaptation, as well as for the analysis of vulnerability, risk mitigation planning in any sector. • Data policy: INAM and DNGRH are public institutions dependent on government budget for operation. Nonetheless, INAM’s institutional and policy framework allows it to establish a revenue stream by selling meteorological data. DNGRH, on the other hand, has structured its cost recovery around water resources themselves, rather than hydrological data. Thus, there are different controls placed on these 20 different datasets. The tension between these policies constrains the development of weather, water and climate services. One step in addressing these challenges could be for all stations hosted by INAM to adopt the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) while DNGRH and ARAs could adopt the hydrological component of WIGOS, the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) to improve hydrological observations. These two WMO initiatives represent a major effort toward bringing all WMO and WMO co-sponsored observing systems into a single design, management, and regulatory framework. Ensuring most hydrometeorological stations adopt WIGOS and WHYCOS is key for enhancing the quality, coverage and availability of data resources. The main driver behind WIGOS and WHYCOS is the desire for increased efficiency and effectiveness in the acquisition of meteorological and hydrological observations, particularly as the demand for observational data for all aspects of weather, climate, atmospheric composition and related areas continues to grow rapidly, while the budgets of the national met services historically responsible for acquiring them tend to be stagnant at best. Traditional network operators are therefore encouraged to partner with each other, academia and private sector partners, rather than to engage in unnecessary competition and set up redundant or overlapping observational networks (Balogh and Kurino 2020). In the context of WIGOS and WHYCOS, the concept of integration manifests itself in at least five somewhat distinct and yet inter-linked ways listed below. They enhance members ability to meet expanding national mandates and achieve higher national visibility of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) with other environment-related agencies. • Integrated network design; • Use of multi-purpose networks, integrated across application areas; • Integration across national and organizational boundaries; • Integration across technology boundaries, e.g. between space-and surface-based components; and • Integration across layers of multi-tiered networks (Giuliani et al. 2017). 5.2 Improving hydrometeorological service design and delivery A general description of services provided by INAM and DNGRH is included in section 2.2. To advance service provision, the PPCR project fostered work to improve forecasts and disseminate early warnings with a particular focus on agriculture, aquaculture, and transport (see Table 1). 21 The project tested pilot solutions to improve the exchange and delivery of tailored hydrometeorological information to key users. These pilot activities included: • Delivery of Early Warning and Flood Forecasting: The pilot comprised of the design, development, and delivery of weather forecasts to alert communities in target and flood-prone areas along the Zambezi and Limpopo River basin. The objective was to make use of the ARAs and INAM’s more accurate and timely weather forecasts. This included lead-time improvements from 1-day to 3-days (World Bank 2020). In addition, the pilot provided more tailored and location-specific alerts for affected communities, NGOs present in the area, and decision makers who deploy response to local officials. • Dissemination of Hydrometeorological Information: The pilot comprised of the design, implementation, and delivery of tailored weather forecasts (seasonal, medium, and short-term) through local and national radio and TV. This was achieved through a communication system (Net-SyS) and the National Coastal Forecasting System for Mozambique (FEWS-INAM) at INAM that enabled the automated generation and dissemination of different hydrometeorological products. The objective of the pilot was to establish a more direct way of communicating with farmers in Gaza and Inhambane Provinces and provide more relevant agricultural information related to water flows/levels in the river system. • Weather Service Alerts: The pilot comprised of the design, implementation, and delivery of severe weather alerts and marine information for fishers, people engaged in fish-markets and marine transport in the coastal areas of Inhambane. The maritime sector, including targeted fisheries communities, are receiving for the first time daily weather and coastal forecasts, which enable them to prepare for and avoid, where possible, storms with heavy and extreme weather conditions (World Bank 2020). Services did improve in several key areas: • AGRICULTURE: The project improved the delivery of reliable and timely hydrometeorological information to farmers in the pilot district of Mabalane. Through impact-based forecasts and daily weather information, farmers were able to improve the planning of their seasonal and daily farming activities. • PORTS and FISHERIES. The project installed automatic weather station at Inhambane Port and developed sea wave models for six cities (five major coastal cities and Inhambane), which government officials report have significantly increased the safety of maritime navigation. The sea wave model generated information has been incorporated in the navigation systems of large ships, small fishing and transportation ships, as well as by the ports and other maritime agents and thus similarly supporting economic opportunities in coastal areas of the country. 22 • AVIATION. As a result of the project, INAM is now better equipped to develop specific services for aviation. INAM was able to improve the safety of the navigation conditions for airports and airline companies through the production and dissemination of detailed meteorological and tailored bulletins (NET-Sys). Site visits and exchanges with local officials, air traffic control staff, and representatives of commercial airlines in Lichinga, Nampula and Beira Airports confirmed the use of certified ISO-9001- 2015 real-time meteorological information for all flight plans, which are now compliant with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) requirements for safety of international air navigation (World Bank 2020). Advances during project implementation period (from 2013 to 2019) led to improvements in the development and use of information for disaster risk management. For instance, during this time, a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWP) – the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was run by INAM to forecast and track the 2019 Idai cyclone and to generate specific products for in-charge entities’ preparedness and response. This effort proved critical for triggering timely response actions and minimizing potential social and economic impacts (WMO 2019; World Bank 2020). The World Bank (2020) estimates the benefits associated with improved information as articulated in Table 2 below. Table 2: Summary of BCA estimates to households, statistical lives saved and sector benefits of improved forecasts (adapted from World Bank 2020) Present value sector Present Present value Present value benefits of value total benefits to benefits of statistical improved forecasts costs (US$) households (US$) lives saved (US$) (US$) Total Present Value 46,420,662 6,818,288 58,348,009 82,377,403 Net Present Value -39,602,374 11,927,347 35,956,741 Benefit Cost Ratio 0.15 1.26 1.77 Discount rate 3% Despite these strides, a number of sectors, along with certain populations, remained underserved by weather, water, and climate services. For instance, a discussion of priority needs revealed that health and tourism would benefit from improved weather and climate services. In addition to reaching out to potential new user communities, respondents identify a number of ways that INAM and DNGRH can work together to develop pathways to better meet the needs of existing users, including increasing their credibility within the community, improving communication, and focusing on the issue of scale. 23 5.2.1 Improving communication and credibility Effective communication strategies are necessary for making climate information accessible and usable to local communities in languages they can understand. The challenges they face in understanding climate information is not only related to language, but the information is often delivered in graphs and measures of weather variables that can be confusing. This can undermine credibility in the weather and climate information delivered in local communities (Nyasimi and Mungai 2015). Several respondents from INAM identified that communicating with users is still a challenge. At the highest level, the language in which agrometeorological information is communicated presents a problem. For instance, while Portuguese is the official and most prevalent language in Mozambique, it is only spoken by 50.3% of the population. Since INAM is not able to provide information in the local language, particularly as many local languages are not widely read/written and some critical words, including “climate,? do not exist, intermediaries need to use proxy terms that can be understood differently by different populations. The use of visualization tools such as flags and figures; dispensing information within the context of a story can help increasing the understandability of climate information (Azevado and Marques 2017). Another challenge is related to communication styles. As an ARA-Sul employee explains: “The challenge is that we don’t know how to talk to people … we can speak at the auditorium of a university, make a presentation…but we need people who know how to make graphics and deliver information in a way people can understand it. That is something we are not good at.? To address this problem, the project piloted approaches including dissemination of information via radio, phone apps, trained leaders, and placards that were strategically located at agreed sites, in Malabane, Inharrime, and Massinga districts, for communicating information on the meaning of impact-based forecasts and warnings. In total, 312,941 people (farmers and fisherman) received daily forecasts and early warnings in a timely manner and pilots showed high potential for expansion and replication (World Bank 2020). During a focus group that included representatives from community radio initiatives, representatives indicated that they would be interested to receive training to better understand the forecasts issued by INAM. Bolstering these kinds of connections to improve the communication and credibility of hydrometeorological information serves as an important pathway to transform weather, water and climate services in Mozambique. The case study in Box 1 below presents an example, which illustrates how Uganda National Meteorological Authority improved the communication and credibility of hydrometeorological services for local communities by simplifying its seasonal forecast, translating into different local languages and disseminating by various actors. 24 Box 1: How Uganda National Meteorological Authority improved the communication and credibility of hydrometeorological services? In Uganda, the seasonal climate forecasts issued by the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) were bulky, written in technical language using complicated terminology and only published in English, which is not widely spoken by the rural population. Furthermore, the forecasts were only disseminated through email from UNMA to other Government ministries, departments and Local Governments. However, due to unreliable internet connections, printing materials, lack of defined distribution procedures, as well as a non-existent dissemination budget, the information barely reached the end users especially the rural communities. The untimely delivery and incomprehensible messages of UNMA’s forecast, generated lack of trust among rural farmers in the government’s hydrometeorological and climate services. Thus, farmers mostly relied on their traditional methods of forecasting for farming decisions making. To address this issue and increase the resilience of farmers to climate risks, UNMA partnered with the Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance in 2012 to develop a simplified seasonal weather forecast. These forecasts are translated into 12 out of 52 local languages spoken in Uganda by specialized translators who have been trained in meteorology terminology. Moreover, the translators work with UNMA’s communications department to clarify any uncertain issues. The forecasts are disseminated by various actors including government agencies, NGOs, and development partners. Dissemination channels include: internet, local FM radio stations, primary and secondary schools, churches, markets, local meetings, print media, and mobile phones. The simplified seasonal weather forecast has reduced misinterpretation of the seasonal scientific weather forecast. By distributing timely and usable weather and climate forecasts and by explaining the importance of this information, rural farmers are enabled to make informed decisions and improve seasonal planning. Evidence has shown that farmers who adopt the scientific climate forecast and implement the complementary advisories are significantly less vulnerable to crop failure or damage of productive assets. Source: Oxfam 2014 5.2.2 Meeting needs at scale Another important issue related to service design and delivery identified by respondents involved addressing needs for hydrometeorological information at scale. Indeed, the issue of tailoring communication to specific user groups underscores a fundamental challenge of providing and disseminating context-specific climate information to meet the specific needs of local users. These constraints limit the potential contribution of climate services to climate change adaptation and risk management (Hansen et al. 2019). 25 In recent years, Mozambique has seen improvements in providing information at the level of districts. As one official from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) explains: “Information reaches the district, but not all producers have access to this…Even if our district directorate received the information, the level of coverage is limited, you can’t reach all producers.? In terms of how to better meet users’ needs, a representative from MADER has made two key suggestions: (1) expanding the dissemination channels of the agrometeorological bulletin; and (2) working more closely with extension officers. Agrometeorological bulletin: Providing key messages from the agrometeorological bulletin through other means such as community radio would help increase the level of coverage of agrometeorological information, and thus ensure local farmers have access to information in a timely manner. Moreover, INAM, along with IIAM, could develop tailored advisories for specific crops. This would also contribute to providing information at scale. The implementation of this approach would require an assessment of needs and prioritization of those services that are most needed. Fostering better collaboration with extension services: While an agrometeorological bulletin distributed through community radio may indeed reach more small-scale farmers, extension officers, responsible for facilitating and communicating agricultural information to enhance productivity, can help farmers contextualize and apply information that are critical in fostering the effective use of weather, water and climate services. Since extension officers are based in the field, they can collect and provide information on a daily basis regarding areas that are at risk of floods, droughts, or other climate hazards. Thus, relying on extension officers would also go a long way to address the communication challenges described in section 5.2.1. In addition to MADER a recent example of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) providing extension services in Mozambique include the Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA), National Cooperative Business Association/Credit League of the United States of America (NCBA/CLUSA), Concern Worldwide, and Action Aid. Working more collaboratively with this range of organizations in tailoring climate information products and providing them in local language or contextualized products is critical. In some cases, these groups may be able to employ participatory processes that can help farmer groups to co-produce, understand, and/or use information (Cunguara, Thompson, and Davis 2018). 5.3 Fostering hydrometeorological and climate services impact through user feedback A number of authors have highlighted the challenges associated with the evaluation of weather, water and climate services (Anderson et al. 2015; Tall, Coulibaly, and Diop 2018; Vaughan et al. 2019). These challenges – which include the non-rival, non-exclusionary nature of hydrometeorological services; the stochastic nature of the climate; and the indirect means by which the weather, water and climate information translate to impact – have thwarted the efforts of skilled evaluators around the world. In doing so, they have prompted information providers to defer evaluation or to rely on more easily tracked 26 but less meaningful metrics including web traffic, workshop participants, and peer?reviewed papers (Meadow et al. 2015). This is true as well in Mozambique. While the World Bank has made some estimates of return on investment (World Bank 2020) associated with the PPCR project, none of the national actors involved in the production or use of weather, water and climate services have focused attention on evaluating or measuring the impact of those services. Improving capacity and practice in this regard is an important avenue through which interested parties in Mozambique can continue to identify pathways to transform weather, water, and climate services. Based on key informant interviews, avenues for improvement in Mozambique include: (1) strengthening pathways for institutional feedback; (2) generating methods to gather and analyze evidence regarding access, use and impact for end users; and (3) developing a consistent repository on evaluation capacity. 5.3.1 Institutional feedback Both INAM and DGNRH report receiving informal feedback regarding existing services from partner organizations, mainly INGD, Red Cross, and the World Food Program. This feedback comes in a variety of formats. For instance, INGD and Red Cross may go to the field to support local communities after a forecasted flood event. During the field visit, those organizations may also collect information on the accuracy and usability of flood forecasts from local people and provide descriptive feedback to DGNRH. The feedback helps DGNRH further improve flood forecast / hydrometeorological information. To date, however, there have not been structured processes designed to gather a systematic view of the way that certain organizations access and use information and the extent to which that information meets their needs. Formalizing these processes will be critical in creating the evidence needed to assess, evaluate and ultimately improve weather, water and climate services in Mozambique. The case study in Box 2 below illustrates how the UK Met Office receives annual feedback on its services. It can be a reference for Mozambique. Box 2: Met Office User Satisfaction Surveys The UK Met Office carries out annual and ad-hoc surveys to gain insight into the public’s requirements and levels of satisfaction with their forecasts and severe weather warning services. These surveys are carried out for the Public Weather Services Customer Group by independent market research companies to ensure they are unbiased and representative of the views of the UK public. They also help the Met Office to identify new requirements and ensure they are providing services that meet public needs. The results are updated annually after a series of surveys are carried out. National Severe Weather Warning Service Surveys 27 It is important to ensure that the warnings the Met Office issues reach the people who need them and that they find the warnings useful. Thus, the Met Office carries out surveys following selected severe weather warnings. • Telephone interviews of 500 people in the affected area. • Monitors awareness, reach, and usefulness of warnings and forecasts. • At least six surveys are carried out each year. • Conducted independently by DJS Research Ltd. Case study adapted from Weather the Change: How to Improve Hydromet Services in Developing Countries? (World Bank and GFDRR 2019) 5.3.2 Evaluating access, use and impact The National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD) technicians indicated that during community meetings in Inharrime and Mabalane districts local communities can provide feedback on the weather forecasts. In addition, as one of them indicated, if communities do not understand the weather information that has been provided, they can reach out to their community leader, who has been trained to interpret weather information, to receive an explanation of the information. If the leaders are also not clear about the information, they can send their questions to INGD through WhatsApp. The INGD technicians are considered critical, though they cannot gather more than general perceptions regarding the extent to which end-users (particularly fishers and farmers) are able to access, use, and benefit from the services they provide. Though costly, a critical step in improving weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique will be for INAM and DGNRH to develop an understanding of who accesses their information; generate a relatively nuanced understanding of what that information means and how it is used; and contextualize in some way the utility and value of the information (Vaughan, Muth, and Brown 2019). Additionally, it is critical to understand weather-related decisions and the products and services that are required by local communities. 5.3.3 Building evaluation capacity While pathways to transform weather, water and climate service in Mozambique will depend on the evaluative evidence described above, how best to build the capacity to generate that evidence remains an open question. It is possible, for instance, that INAM and DGNRH may both benefit from creating a shared staff position that would allow an evaluator to develop expertise in hydrometeorological services, maintain an evolving sense of shared services that may be offered by these organizations, and track their evaluation goals over time. Other arrangements may also be desirable. INAM and DGNRH may explore whether and how innovative partnerships could allow them to access and benefit from the evaluation expertise they need. One model would be to build evaluation capacity within the WMO Regional Climate Centers for Southern Africa (WMO 2019). Other boundary organizations (e.g., University of Cape Town’s Climate Systems Analysis 28 Group) may also exist that could serve national and/or regional services where appropriate in evaluation activities (Cvitanovic et al. 2018). The SADC community has implemented several platforms and tools to enable greater coordination and synergies across different countries. There may be possibilities to expand the discussion on regional integration and peer-to-peer support on building evaluation capacity within the SADC community. Exploring these different models for developing the human and institutional capacity needed to evaluate hydrometeorological services is a critical component of finding and fostering pathways to transform weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique. 5.4 Building appropriate human capacity In addition to evaluation capacity, study participants identified several additional gaps in human capacity that impede the quality of hydrometeorological and climate services in Mozambique. Addressing these needs are paramount to building an effective hydrometeorological services within Mozambique. Priorities include: (1) addressing challenges in data collection; (2) increasing capacity for data analysis and the generation of hydrometeorological information products; and (3) training user groups on the meaning and utility of existing services within specific contexts. These issues are explored in detail below. 5.4.1 Addressing challenges in data collection Observation data provides the basis for a reliable weather, water, and climate services – and while Mozambique’s observation network is improving, there are opportunities to build capacity that would further improve data collection. The first of these opportunities involves improving relationships among those charged with collecting station data, who are also known as local observers. A number of study participants described the allowance paid to these people, and the job security afforded them, as quite low, limiting their motivation to perform their duties well and in a timely manner. Supervision is also a concern; representatives from ARA-Sul report that local observers sometimes do not go to the stations – and since they are not technically part of ARA-Sul staff, their connection to the organization is very weak. While some of these challenges can be super-navigated with automatic weather stations, developing relationships with communities where these stations are located is essential as vandalism sometimes occurs. A DNGRH representative explains that in some areas, automatic stations go offline because people are stealing the batteries and solar panels on which the stations depend. To remedy this, DNGRH is exploring the potential to develop Memoranda of Understanding with local communities, or otherwise foster collaborative arrangements whereby those communities that host weather stations feel some ownership and see some direct benefit in taking care of those stations. 29 5.4.2 Advancing capacity for research and analysis Attracting, training and retaining professionals who are able to perform the data analysis necessary to generate needed information products has been a challenge for national agencies in Mozambique. While INAM has a research department, it has been described as weak by university collaborators. Although INAM has arranged a variety of training opportunities for its staff, retention has been an issue. Once people are trained, for instance, they may look for jobs elsewhere – in the oil and gas industries, or abroad where possible. This has created a context in which INAM and DNGRH are continually investing in training but not benefiting from increased capacity. Participants have highlighted that attracting and retaining qualified staff should be prioritized before strengthening research and development capacity. Offering competitive employment packages and raising salaries may help attract and retain skilled staff to truly transform weather, water, and climate services at the national scale. Another issue will be to ensure that trained staff are given appropriate resources to conduct their work. Several respondents argue that PhD-level scientists are unable to perform their work due to the limited resources, including software and equipment. Accessing small research grants can contribute to set up the equipment necessary and support research initiatives. Fostering collaborations with academic institutions, which tend to be better at mobilizing research grants, is pivotal, and can further contribute to the development and strengthening of weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique. 5.4.3 Fostering an informed user community Another impediment to the efficacy of weather, water, and climate services in Mozambique is the extent to which potential users are able to access, understand, and use the information at hand. A number of study participants discussed the need to train potential users as an important gap within the country. Modes for this may vary depending on the users that are targeted. For instance, trainings for institutional actors within the municipality of Maputo may require workshops with scientists, while smallholder farmers may benefit instead from participatory processes, such as the Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach. Co-designing and co-developing climate information services can contribute to implementing climate information services that are understandable for farming communities. While a range of training approaches may be relevant, identifying and prioritizing user groups most likely to benefit from this kind of outreach would be a first step. 5.5 Strengthening National coordination Because weather, water, and climate services involve the production, translation, transfer, and use of climate information, they are inherently networked activities that draw on a range of expertise. In this 30 context, coordination between a range of national organizations is essential for the effective production, dissemination and use of such services. Respondents identified several areas where better coordination could help transform the development and use of such services within Mozambique. This includes collaborations (1) between INAM and the DNGRH; (2) between INAM and academic institutions; (3) with both government and non-governmental organizations involved in identifying and managing disaster risk; and (4) with respect to the use of long- term climate change projections. 5.5.1 Bridging INAM and DNGRH As mentioned in section 4.1, as part of the PPCR project, a MOU was signed between INAM and DNGRH to formalize the relationship between two institutions, primarily regarding data sharing. Nevertheless, it is pivotal to integrate the actions established in the MOU in the plans and budgets of these institutions to materialize institutional ownership in the short, medium and long term, as well as sustainability of climate services. While there have been great efforts and achievements in enhancing the coordination and data sharing between INAM and DNGRH, some challenges remain. For instance, some study participants have found the divide between the meteorology and hydrology institutions as artificial and constraining. “First of all, I don’t think that DNGRH and INAM should be separate institutions, that is my opinion. They should be the same institution, if they were the same institution, it would mean the data management, the data collection, would be strengthened.? While institutional arrangements between weather, water and climate service providers have not been formally studied, many countries do have one organization that services both meteorological and hydrological information needs. 5.5.2 Improving university collaboration The academic sector can play a key role in the development of hydrometeorological and climate services in Mozambique. In recent years, significant efforts have been made to improve coordination between INAM and the University of Eduardo Mondlane (UEM) in order to build capacity to develop weather, water, and climate information. For instance, an MOU between the University’s Department of Physics and INAM has opened collaboration between the two groups. Among other things, this has improved modelling, processing, and analysis of data. Moreover, it has created a context in which most of the meteorologists at INAM are trained at UEM. This has improved capacity at INAM. It has led to improvements at UEM, with the goal of introducing a masters-level university training course. This kind of collaborations needs to be supported and expanded to other academic institutions not just nationally but internationally. 31 5.5.3 Building capacity for disaster risk management Within Mozambique, a great deal of progress has been made to foster effective collaboration around disaster preparedness and Disaster Risk Management (DRM) as the impacts of hydrometeorological disasters drawing considerable attention in recent years. The National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD) is responsible for disaster risk management in the country. At the community level, INGD acts through local committees for DRM that are empowered to deal with both disaster prevention and preparedness. Coordination between INGD, INAM, and DNGRH is through the Technical Committee for Management of Disasters (CTGD). It is crucial to establish an MOU between DNGRH, INAM and INGD to further strengthen this collaboration. The MOU would specify the terms of the collaboration between the institutions and allow INGD to articulate specific requests that would foster disaster risk management activities within the country. DNGRH and INAM can support INGD, as well as other national and international agencies involved in civil protection and humanitarian aid operations, by improving knowledge, models, and tools useful for the timely evaluation of risk scenarios and early action. 5.5 Promoting Regional cooperation Mozambique is a member of several regional programs, initiatives, and projects such as the Africa Hydromet Initiative, International Hydrological Program of UNESCO – EWS development support for Limpopo basin (IHP-EWS), Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO), and SADC-HYCOS (Southern Africa) project contributing in water resources monitoring, assessment and management. It also became a member of the Regional Association I – Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South-West Indian Ocean (RSMC La Réunion Tropical Cyclone Centre) in 1978. It provides information about every tropical (or subtropical) system developing or tracking over its area of responsibility. The country also implemented a WMO-supported regional system – Flash Flood Guidance System with Global Coverage (FFGS), which provides real-time informational guidance products about the threat of small-scale flash flooding. INAM collaborates with WMO’s Regional Centers including the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Pretoria with whom they develop weather products, especially during extreme weather events. In addition, the meteorological institution participates in the Southern African Regional Outlook Forum (SARCOF), which is coordinated by the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). During SARCOF climatological experts and forecasters meet to develop a regional forecast for the season. This regional forecast is then downscaled for Mozambique and used in different sectors including, for example, agriculture. Whilst the country participates in several international initiatives, interviewees pointed out that further strengthening of international collaboration to share real-time hydrometeorological information would be beneficial for flood and drought management. In addition, it would be beneficial to explore triangular 32 cooperation initiatives, where a donor country or a multilateral organization facilitates training, technology, and other forms of support, between two developing countries. 6. CONCLUSIONS Recent years have seen a great deal of progress regarding the production and use of weather, water and climate services in Mozambique. Main improvements have included: (1) strengthening hydrological information management; (2) strengthening weather and climate information management; and (3) the delivery of improved weather and water information in agriculture, aquaculture, and transport. The analysis finds that efforts to advance weather, water and climate services in Mozambique have several promising areas for advancement. These areas for investment include: • Integrating weather and water data resources • Improving design and delivery of services, including reaching out to new sectors; improving communication; and meeting needs at scale • Fostering user impact through feedback and evaluation • Building appropriate capacity • Improving national coordination • Fostering international collaboration The analysis underscores the extent to which there is no one area where additional investment will transform weather, water and climate services. Indeed, while data and analysis underpin the information component of such services, attention must also be paid to connecting with users; understanding impact; building capacity and fostering collaboration. This is best articulated through the value chain depicted in Figure 1 in Section 2. 33 Bibliography Anderson, G. et al. 2015. 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Hansen, James W. et al. 2019. “Climate Services Can Support African Farmers’ Context-Specific Adaptation Needs at Scale.? Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 3(21). INAM. 2012. Strategic Plan for Meteorological Services. Maputo. 34 INAM and Leadership Business Consulting. 2017. Report of the Current Situation of INAM for Elaboration of the Business Plan. Inter-Agency Standing Committee, and European Comission. 2020. INFORM Report 2020: Shared Evidence for Managing Crisis and Disaster. ISBN 978-92-76-17910-8. IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. Marshall, Catherine, and Gretchen Rossman. 2011. Designing Qualitative Research. London, England: SAGE Publications. Meadow, Alison M. et al. 2015. “Moving Toward the Deliberate Co-Production of Climate Science Knowledge.? Weather, Climate, and Society: 150406095212003. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00050.1. MICOA. 2012. Mozambique National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy. Maputo. Nyasimi M. and Mungai Catherine. 2015. “Making the Most of Climate Information for Community-Based Adaptation? https://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/making-most-climate-information-community-based- adaptation Oxfam. 2014. “The Climate Forecast Model? https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/595078/ml-climate-forecast-model- 100914-en.pdf?sequence=1 Quinn, Colin F. et al. 2018. “Adaptation and Poverty Reduction in Mozambique: An Opportunity for Developing Countries to Lead.? Climate Policy 18(2). Srivastava, Aashish, and S. Bruce Thomson. 2009. “Framework Analysis : A Qualitative Methodology for Applied Policy Research.? Journal of Administration & Governance 4(2): 72–79. http://www.joaag.com/uploads/06_Research_Note_Srivastava_and_Thomson_4_2_.pdf Tall, Arame, Jeanne Y Coulibaly, and Moustapha Diop. 2018. “Do Climate Services Make a Di fference ? A Review of Evaluation Methodologies and Practices to Assess the Value of Climate Information Services for Farmers : Implications for Africa.? Climate Services 11(June): 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.06.001. Tall A. 2013. What do we mean by climate services ? https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/what-do-we- mean-climate-services UN OCHA. 2020. “Mozambique Situation Report.? https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/mozambique. 35 USAID. 2017. “Climate Risk Profile Mozambique.? https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/climate-risk- profile-mozambique. Vaughan, Catherine et al. 2019. “Evaluating Agricultural Weather and Climate Services in Africa: Evidence, Methods, and a Learning Agenda.? WIRES Climate Change. https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_CVaughan-et-al_EVALUATING AGRICULTURAL WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES IN AFRICA.pdf. Vaughan, Catherine, Meredith F Muth, and David P Brown. 2019. “Evaluation of Regional Climate Services: Learning from Seasonal-Scale Examples across the Americas.? Climate Services. WMO. 2019. Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Hazards in Mozambique after Cyclone IDAI. Geneva, Switzerland. https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=6259. World Bank. 2013. Project Appraisal Document on a Proposed Grant in the Amount of US$15 Million from the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) of the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) to the Republic of Mozambique for a Climate Resilience: Transforming Hydrological and Me. Report No: 75939-MZ. World Bank. 2020. Implementation Completion Report. ICR_Draft_P131049_Apr_15_2020. Report No: ICR00005203. World Bank. 2021a. E-Platform on Weather and Climate Services for Resilience Development: A guide for Practitioners and Policy Makers. https://olc.worldbank.org/content/e-platform-weather-and-climate- services-resilient-development-guide-practitioners-and-policy World Bank. 2021b. A regional analysis of weather, climate, water and early warning services in Southern Africa: Status Quo and Proposed actions. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Regional-Analysis-of-Weather-Climate-Water- and-Early-Warning-Services-in-Southern-Africa-Status-Quo-and-Proposed-Actions.pdf 36 APPENDICES Appendix 1 – List of products and services offered by INAM (adapted from “Report of the Current Situation of INAM for Elaboration of the Business Plan (INAM and Leadership Business Consulting 2017)? Weather forecast Description: Designed for two periods of the day, morning and afternoon. This product per day (morning is composed of the following meteorological parameters: and afternoon) ▪ Significant time Phenomena (national); ▪ Maximum and minimum air temperature (provincial capitals); ▪ Precipitation registered (national); ▪ Wind direction and intensity (national). Target Group: This product is essentially made available to the general public through the media, including television, radio, email and the internet. Weather Description: Produced for 50 miles off the coast of Mozambique, Mozambique channel forecast, between the parallels 10º to 27º for two periods of the day, morning and afternoon. maritime Product composed by a detailed description of the weather forecast with the prognosis of the evolution of the parameters, significant. As a rule, the meteorological parameters used in this service are: significant time; precipitation; wind (direction and intensity), waves and sea state. Target Group: This product is essentially made available to fishermen and small boats, boats for crossing, National Institute of Maritime Administration (INAMAR) and coastal police, through the means of social communication, radio and email. Meteorological Description: This Service is the result of the activity of the monitoring and surveillance Warnings of the state time made by INAM, 24/7. This type of service is an effective response to a increasingly urgent need for the meteorological services to respond promptly and in a more accurate way to the challenges of the current weather, considering the relevant impact of weather conditions on the safety of people and goods, as well as in various sectors of society. ▪ Warnings of intense heat and heat wave; ▪ Warnings of heavy rain and thunderstorms; ▪ Warnings of strong winds; ▪ Warnings of tropical cyclone. Target Group: Currently this service the INAM is disseminating through the media of social communication, including television, radio, email and SMS system, and it is intended for the general public, INGC and strategic partners (health, water, agriculture). 37 Special forecasts Description: There are specific provisions requested by the entities and public institutions and decision-making, and private institutions to a given region. ▪ Maximum air temperature and minimum (provincial capitals); ▪ Precipitation (national); ▪ Wind direction and intensity (national). Target Group: Public institutions (Presidency of the republic), private institutions/project (Mozal, Northern Corridor), Council for disaster management, the Council of Ministers. Aeronautical Description: The requirements placed on Aeronautical meteorology are progressively meteorology more demanding and diverse, guided by the overriding need to satisfy the international service. regulations in this field, in particular the ICAO and to respond to the standards imposed by the aviation community. The service monitoring, forecasting and meteorological observation for aeronautical purposes must be guaranteed, while ensuring their quality in accordance with the best practices of the aviation industry. INAM uninterruptedly provided aeronautical meteorology services for aeronautical purposes to different national and international aeronautical operators from Maputo. It should be noted that INAM’s aeronautical meteorology services are certified in accordance with the ISO 9001 standard and is composed of the following components: • Meteorological observation of aerodromes through the METARs/SPECIs codes; • Weather forecast of aerodromes through the TAF’s and SIGMET’s; • Predictions of significant phenomena en route; • Wind and temperature forecasts at altitude; • The flight plan, documentation composed of information consisting of information on the four components, plus forecasts and specific information for the operation of flights at various flight levels for different meteorological parameters. Target Group: The service provided by INAM to aeronautical operators is essential to ensure safety, regularity and efficiency of flights. Meteorological Description: INAM collects data and information for purposes of weather and climate Observation forecasting, as well as aeronautical activity from its meteorological network. This Service (network information is disseminated through the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) of the WMO. of stations and comments) Target Group: Air transport operators, world and regional weather forecast centers. Forecast for tv Description: product designed to appeal to the compilation of various meteorological information produced by the Center for forecasting, namely daily weather forecast. It is a graphical forecast and prepared and presented once per day. Target Group: This product is essentially made available to citizens through the means of social communication, including television. 38 Seasonal Description: This product is for the rainy season (October-March), divided into two Forecasting periods (October-December and January-March). Has monthly updating and integrates information concerning climate observation and forecasting and is produced by the Department of Planning and Research of the INAM. It is on the basis of this product that the National Forum Climate Preview (FNAC) makes their prognosis, including the contingency plans. Target Group: Information is provided to strategic partners (agriculture, water, health and disaster management) and the general public. Result of Description: The INAM has a unique collection of meteorological and climatological data meteorological from the national territory. It is with recourse to the use of these data which are carried observation data. out several studies, scientific and technical of extreme relevance for various business areas, in particular for the preparation of studies related to climate change; environmental impact; hydrological system; works of engineering; industrial facilities; construction communication routes. Target Group: Companies in the environmental sector, civil construction and public works, land and maritime transport, Universities. Certificates and Description: The INAM is the national entity which has overall responsibility for the attestations of preparation of reports in situations of severe weather. These reports serve as a time. certificate attesting to the occurrence of certain meteorological phenomenon or meteorological situation of adverse weather. These certificates have as main users any citizen who to ask, insurance companies, lawyers and the courts. Target Group: General public, insurance companies, lawyers and the courts, construction companies, etc. Calibration Description: The INAM has laboratory and technical capacity to develop calibrations of meteorological instruments classics, including thermometers and barometers of maximum and minimum. Target Group: Entities with responsibilities in the field of meteorology in the region of Africa. The private sector and entities that have meteorological stations. 39 Appendix 2 – List of products and services offered by DNGRH and ARAs Regional Description: This product details the daily hydrological scenario issued in the rainy National season. It also includes the level of water storage in the main reservoirs and forecasts Hydrological the hydrological scenario for up to seventy-two hours. Bulletin Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public, cooperation partners, NGOs, etc. Summary Description: It briefly summarizes the daily hydrological scenario issued everyday Hydrological throughout the year. It also reflects the level of water storage in the main reservoirs. Bulletin Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public, cooperation partners, NGOs, etc. Alerts Description: Announcements of occurrence of flood events in certain places. Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public, cooperation partners, NGOs, etc. National Drought Description: This product details hydrological deficit scenarios, usually issued Bulletin quarterly. Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public, cooperation partners, NGOs, etc. Water Quality Description: It includes state of surface water quality in national river basins. Bulletin Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public. Rainy Season Description: This product includes the predicted flood scenarios to help responsible Outlook institutions, mainly INGD, do necessary preparations during possible flood events. Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public, cooperation partners, NGOs, etc. Rainy Season Description: It includes assessment of the rainy season of the past year, hydrological Assessment forecasts, recorded flood peaks, institutional performance in flood response, flood Report damage, etc. Target Group: Public institutions, press, private sector, general public, cooperation partners, NGOs, etc. 40 Appendix 3 – Interview protocol Q0. Role of agency: Describe the role of your agency in the value chain Q1.1 Weaknesses of VC: Which elements of the hydromet and climate service system are weakest, and which present the greatest challenge Q1.2 Strengths of VC: Which elements of the hydromet and climate service system are strongest, and which present the greatest challenge Q2. Importance of user-provider collaboration: Would you consider collaboration between providers and users in data collection and management important to the successful functioning of the hydromet climate services system in your country? Q5. Types of products/services: Which types of hydromet and climate information, products and services are delivered (do you deliver) to your organization, and how is this done? Q6.1 Areas of improvement for data collection and management: What would you suggest are the most important areas where improvements in data collection and management? Q6.2 Areas of improvement for delivery and development of products/services: What would you suggest are the most important areas where improvements in development and delivery of hydromet information, products and services are needed? What improvements would you recommend? Q7. Collaboration with stakeholders: Which stakeholders – internationally (including other national NMHSs) and/or nationally (such as local communities) – does your agency collaborate with during development of information, products and services? How important are these partners? Q9. Technology influence: Is technological advancement influencing the operation (positively/negatively) of different phases of the value chain (i.e. data collection and management, and development and delivery of information, products and services in any way? If so, how? Q10. Utility for decision-making: For the information, products and services that you receive, is content useful for decision-making? Are the information reaching the intended users? Q12. Feedback: Do you provide feedback to hydromet and climate information providers and do you receive feedback from users (if you play a role in development and delivery that is)? If so, how is feedback provided and what are the key areas from which improvements are regularly highlighted? (please see list below for guidance). If not, why not? Q14. Institutional landscape: How does the wider institutional landscape in your country affect the ability of your organization to deliver or receive a quality service? e.g. institutional leadership, institutional capacities, budgets relationship with key non-government actors, legal frameworks, etc.) Q15. Coordination of international actors: How would you describe the coordination of international actors (e.g. WMO, donors, UN agencies, etc.) with respect to hydromet and climate information, products and services in your country? (Excellent; Very good; Good; Poor; Very Poor; Don’t Know) 41 Appendix 4 – Demographic characteristics of FG participants Focus Group Discussions 1 Farmers (Guija) (F=11/M=9) 17 2 Farmers (Inharrime) 11 3 Fishers (Inharrime) 12 4 Community radio workers 13 5 District leaders 12 6 District technical staff 7 Number of participants – FGs 72 42

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