Tuesday, November 28, 2023
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How Vegas views the NBA over/under win totals

There was plenty of movement this NBA offseason, with numerous teams making significant improvements and others set to take a step back, whether voluntarily or involuntarily.

We wanted to examine what Vegas thought of the offseason and how teams will stack up record-wise compared to last season. While some over/under win total predictions are obvious — Miami will be good, duh — others aren’t so clear. Which second-tier Western Conference teams surprise, and which Eastern Conference playoff contenders falter, and vice versa. Vegas believes the Utah Jazz will take the biggest step back in terms of win totals from last season, while the Cleveland Cavaliers could take the biggest step forward.

Here’s a peek at the 2012-13 records and the over/under win totals predicted by Bovada.lv as of Oct. 28.

Team2012-13 record2013-14 over/under win total
Miami Heat66-1661.5The Heat are expected to take a small step back, but they’re still viewed to be the best team in the league.
Los Angeles Clippers56-2656.5With Doc Rivers at the helm and improvements made in the shooting department, the Clippers should be better than ever.
Chicago Bulls45-3756.5The return of Derrick Rose vaults the Bulls back into the title conversation.
San Antonio Spurs58-2455.5Age could play a factor, but the continued improvement of Kawhi Leonard means there shouldn’t be too much of a drop-off.
Houston Rockets45-3754.5The addition of Dwight Howard could move the Rockets into the top half of a loaded Western Conference.
Indiana Pacers49-3254.5The Pacers are expected to build off last season thanks to an improved bench, although Danny Granger’s injury puts a damper on things.
Brooklyn Nets49-3352.5The small projected increase in wins is surprising given the big splashes made this offseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder60-2252.5Vegas sees a significant step back for OKC because of Russell Westbrook’s injury and the departure of Kevin Martin.
Golden State Warriors47-3551.5The Warriors improved by adding Andre Iguodala, but they did lose some quality depth in the form of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry.
Memphis Grizzlies56-2650.5The Grizzlies have a new coach and bring back the same core as last year, but not as much success is expected.
New York Knicks54-2848.5With the improvements made by other top teams, the Knicks are set to fall back a bit in the Eastern Conference.
Denver Nuggets57-2545.5With Andre Iguodala gone and Danilo Gallinari rehabbing from an ACL injury, the Nuggets won’t be nearly as good as last year.
Dallas Mavericks41-4143.5Oddsmakers don’t think the Mavericks’ revamped roster will improve much compared to a year ago.
Minnesota Timberwolves31-5141.5Betting on the T-Wolves to win 10 more games than last season means betting on the injury bug staying out of the locker room.
Cleveland Cavaliers24-5840.5The Cavs are projected to win about 16 more games this season compared to last. Kyrie Irving is an All-Star but it’s hard to imagine unless center Andrew Bynum figures in to all of this.
Detroit Pistons29-5340.5Can Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith greatly improve a Pistons team with a young, developing frontcourt?
Washington Wizards29-5340.5Washington should be considered, at worst, a .500 team with John Wall playing a full year. The acquisition of Marcin Gortat has this number rising.
New Orleans Pelicans27-5539.5An overhaul in NOLA includes a three-headed monster of a backcourt and optimism in general.
Atlanta Hawks44-3839.5This season will give a glimpse of how Josh Smith affected the Hawks, who replace the forward with a not-to-shabby player in Paul Millsap.
Portland Trail Blazers33-4938.5The Blazers improved their bench this year, but it remains to be seen if that’s enough for them to enter the playoff picture.
Los Angeles Lakers45-3736.5

Kobe Bryant’s injury and the age concerns surrounding Steve Nash and Pau Gasol means the Lakers are expected to have a major dropoff.

Toronto Raptors34-4836.5Toronto will have Rudy Gay for a full year and some developing pieces, but there weren’t big enough changes to warrant a significant improvement.
Sacramento Kings28-5431.5The additions of Greivis Vasquez, rookie Ben McLemore and a new coaching staff bring a tad bit of optimism — but not much.
Milwaukee Bucks38-4428.5Milwaukee believes it replaced Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis enough to compete for a playoff spot this year, but Vegas doesn’t believe it.
Boston Celtics41-4027.5 Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are gone, and Rajon Rondo’s return from an ACL tear will have Boston often wondering where its next win could come from.
Charlotte Bobcats21-6126.5The Bobcats add Al Jefferson and rookie Cody Zeller, but Vegas believes that’s only worth approximately five more wins this season.
Utah Jazz43-3925.5It’s a big dropoff for Utah, which lost vets Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap in free agency this summer.
Orlando Magic20-6223.5A developing core won’t be expected to win many more games in 2013-14.
Phoenix Suns25-5719.5The trade of Marcin Gortat officially made less than 20 wins possible.
Philadelphia 76ers34-4816.5A win over-under this low is close to the category of “Worst NBA Team Ever.”

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